Tsarin Abubuwan Ciki
- 1. Gabatarwa
- 2. Abubuwan Da Suka Ƙaddara Amfani da Manufar Kula da Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki (IT)
- 3. Aikin Tattalin Arziki A Ƙarƙashin Manufar Kula da Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki (IT)
- 4. Farashin da Ake Bi don Sauƙaƙe Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki da Ma'auni na Sadaukarwa
- 5. Muhimman Bincike da Taƙaitaccen Ƙididdiga
- 6. Fahimta ta Asali & Bincike Mai Zurfi
- 7. Tsarin Fasaha da Ƙirar Bincike na Gaskiya
- 8. Tsarin Bincike: Hanyar Nazarin Lamari
- 9. Amfani na Gaba da Hanyoyin Bincike
- 10. Nassoshi
1. Gabatarwa
Manufar Kula da Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki (IT) ta fito a matsayin tsarin manufar kuɗi mai muhimmanci bayan da New Zealand ta fara amfani da ita a shekara ta 1990. Tun daga lokacin, an aiwatar da wannan tsarin a ƙasashe 43 a cikin ƙasashe masu ci gaba da masu tasowa (EMEs). Wannan takarda tana nazarin ɗimbin takardun bincike na gaskiya da ke bincika tasirin manufar IT a fannin tattalin arziki, tare da mai da hankali kan abubuwan da suka ƙaddara amfani da ita, sakamakon aiki, da farashin da ake bi don saukaka hawan farashin kayayyaki.
Yaduwar IT a duniya tana wakiltar abin da Rose (2007) ya bayyana a matsayin rinjaye a tsarin kuɗi na duniya. Ba kamar dabarun kuɗi na baya ba, IT ta nuna ƙarfin dorewa tare da babu wata ƙasa da ta watsar da tsarin da zarar an yi amfani da shi.
2. Abubuwan Da Suka ƙaddara Amfani da Manufar Kula da Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki (IT)
Takardun bincike na gaskiya sun gano abubuwa da yawa da ke tasiri yanke shawarar ƙasashe na amfani da tsarin kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki.
2.1 Abubuwan Cikin Cibiyoyi
Ƙaƙƙarfan shaida ya nuna cewa ƙasashe mafi girma, masu ci gaba, waɗanda ke da 'yancin kai mafi girma na babban bankin ƙasa, sun fi yuwuwar amfani da IT. Tsarin yana buƙatar ƙaƙƙarfan sadaukarwa na cibiyoyi da tsarin sadarwa mai bayyananne kamar yadda Bernanke da Mishkin (1997) suka bayyana.
2.2 Yanayin Tattalin Arziki
Abubuwan da suka gabata na saukaka hawan farashin kayayyaki da ƙarin sassauci a canjin kuɗin waje yawanci suna gabatar da amfani da IT. Duk da haka, takardun bincike sun nuna cewa bai kamata a kalli waɗannan abubuwan a matsayin ƙaƙƙarfan sharuɗɗan da ake buƙata ba.
2.3 Bukatun Fasaha
Matsakaicin ci gaban kuɗi da ƙarfin hasashen hawan farashin kayayyaki amintacce sune muhimman abubuwan da ake buƙata na fasaha don samun nasarar aiwatar da IT.
3. Aikin Tattalin Arziki A Ƙarƙashin Manufar Kula da Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki (IT)
3.1 Canjin Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki
Shaidar gaskiya tana ba da sakamako daban-daban game da tasirin IT wajen daidaita tsammanin hawan farashin kayayyaki da rage ci gaba da hawan farashin kayayyaki. Duk da yake ana lura da wasu haɗuwa zuwa ƙananan hawan farashin kayayyaki, ana ci gaba da muhawara kan rawar da IT kanta ke takawa.
3.2 Aikin Samar da Kayayyaki da Ayyuka
Binciken ya gano babu wata ƙaƙƙarfan shaida da ke nuna cewa IT tana da alaƙa da ko dai haɓakar samar da kayayyaki da ayyuka ko ƙananan bambance-bambancen samar da kayayyaki da ayyuka. Wannan yana ƙalubalantar da'awar masu goyon bayan farko game da fa'idodin ci gaban IT.
3.3 Tasirin Canjin Kuɗin Waje
Da alama IT tana da tasiri daban-daban akan sauye-sauyen canjin kuɗin waje a cikin ƙasashe masu ci gaba da EMEs, kodayake hanyoyin da ke bayan waɗannan bambance-bambancen suna buƙatar ƙarin bincike.
3.4 Haɗin Kai da Manufofin Kasafin Kuɗi
Ƙananan shaida amma mai goyon baya ta nuna cewa IT na iya inganta tsarin kasafin kuɗi, kodayake hanyoyin da ke haifar da hakan ba a bincika su sosai a cikin takardun bincike.
4. Farashin da Ake Bi don Sauƙaƙe Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki da Ma'auni na Sadaukarwa
Goyon bayan gaskiya ga IT yana da alaƙa da ƙananan farashin saukaka hawan farashin kayayyaki (ma'auni na sadaukarwa) ya bayyana yana da rauni. Dangantakar tsakanin amfani da IT da farashin samar da kayayyaki da ayyuka na rage hawan farashin kayayyaki ta kasance mai shakka a cikin takardun binciken da aka yi nazari.
5. Muhimman Bincike da Taƙaitaccen Ƙididdiga
Abubuwan Da Suka Ƙaddara Amfani
Ƙaƙƙarfan shaida ga abubuwan cikin cibiyoyi, mafi rauni ga yanayin tattalin arziki
Aikin Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki
Shaida gauraye a cikin ƙasashe masu ci gaba, mafi kyau a cikin EMEs
Tasirin Ci Gaba
Babu wata ƙaƙƙarfan shaida ta tasiri mai kyau
Tsarin Kasafin Kuɗi
Ƙananan shaida amma mai goyon baya
6. Fahimta ta Asali & Bincike Mai Zurfi
Fahimta ta Asali
Sarki ba shi da tufafi. Bayan shekaru talatin da ɗimbin amfani, takardun bincike na gaskiya sun ba da hukunci mai ban sha'awa: Fa'idodin tattalin arziki na Manufar Kula da Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki, a mafi kyau, suna da matsakaici kuma galibi ba su bambanta da wasu tsare-tsare ba. Binciken ya bayyana babban gibin tsakanin alkawarin ka'idar IT da abin da ta samu na gaskiya, musamman a cikin ƙasashe masu ci gaba inda haɗuwa maimakon fifiko ke siffanta sakamako.
Tsarin Ma'ana
Labarin ya bayyana tare da daidaito mai yiwuwa: amfani da farko ta masu fafutuka na cibiyoyi (New Zealand, Kanada, UK) ya haifar da tasirin bandeji, sannan muhawarar hanyoyin bincike game da ma'auni da abubuwan da ke haifar da su, ya ƙare a cikin yarjejeniyar yanzu na tsammanin da aka rage. Juyin halittar takardun bincike yayi kama da abin da muka gani a wasu fannonin manufofi—sha'awar farko, gyaran hanyoyin bincike, sannan binciken gaskiyar gaskiya. Abin da ke da ban sha'awa musamman shine yadda ake ganin nasarar IT a cikin EMEs galibi ya samo asali ne daga kwatanta da madadin da ke da haɗarin rikici maimakon fifikon asali.
Ƙarfi & Kurakurai
Ƙarfi: Dorewar tsarin ba za a iya musantawa ba—babu wani juyewa yana magana da yawa game da dorewarsa ta siyasa. Fa'idodin bayyananne, duk da cewa yana da wahala a ƙididdige su, suna wakiltar ci gaban cibiyoyi na gaskiya. Sassaucin tsarin a aikace (kamar yadda aka gani a cikin aiwatar da Chile da Isra'ila a hankali) yana nuna ƙarfin daidaitawa da ya ɓace daga ƙarin tsauraran tsare-tsare.
Kurakurai: Matsalar abin da ke haifar da ita ta bayyana babba—shin ƙasashen IT suna yin mafi kyau, ko ƙasashe masu aiki mafi kyau suna zaɓar IT? Rashin kafa fa'idodin ci gaba bayyananne na binciken yana lalata dalilin tattalin arziki na tsarin. Mafi muni shi ne shaida daga ƙasashe masu ci gaba: idan IT ba ta fi wasu madadin inda cibiyoyi suka fi ƙarfi ba, menene tsayayyen darajar? Tsarin kula da kwanciyar hankali na kuɗi a matsayin abin damuwa na biyu yana bayyana yana da matsala bayan 2008.
Fahimta Mai Aiki
1. Rage IT daga akida zuwa kayan aiki: Ya kamata manyan bankunan su ɗauki IT a matsayin zaɓi ɗaya daga cikin da yawa, ba a matsayin ƙarshen manufar kuɗi ba. Ci gaba da sassaucin Bankin Japan da matsakaicin manufar kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki na Fed suna wakiltar hanyoyi masu lafiya.
2. Mai da hankali kan abin da ke da muhimmanci a zahiri: Takardun bincike sun nuna cewa ingancin cibiyoyi ('yancin kai na babban bankin ƙasa, bayyananne) yana da muhimmanci fiye da takamaiman tsarin manufa. Ya kamata albarkatu su koma daga kula da tsarin zuwa gina iyawa.
3. Sake tunanin labarin kasuwannin masu tasowa: Nasarar da ke bayyana a cikin EMEs na iya nuna rashin wadatar madadin da za a iya amfani da su maimakon kyawawan halaye na asali na IT. Haɓaka kasuwannin lamuni na kuɗin cikin gida da inganta tsare-tsaren kasafin kuɗi na iya haifar da riba mafi girma.
4. Shirya don tsarin gaba: Tare da canjin yanayi da kuɗin dijital suna sake fasalin yanayin kuɗi, riƙe da tsare-tsaren 1990s shine kuskuren dabarun. Bincike ya kamata ya juya zuwa tsare-tsaren manufofi haɗe-haɗe waɗanda ke magance ƙalubalen ƙarni na 21.
Mafi mahimmancin gudunmawar binciken na iya zama abin da bai samu ba: ƙaƙƙarfan shaida don fifikon IT. A cikin zamanin da ake buƙatar ƙirƙira manufofi, wannan ya kamata ya 'yantar da masu banki maimakon takura su. Tsarin ya cika manufarsa wajen kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki mai yawa, amma gazawarsa wajen cimma maƙasudin tattalin arziki mafi faɗi yana nuna cewa muna buƙatar sabon tunani, ba ƙarin gyare-gyaren tsoffin hanyoyi ba.
7. Tsarin Fasaha da Ƙirar Bincike na Gaskiya
Takardun bincike na gaskiya suna amfani da hanyoyin ƙididdiga daban-daban don tantance tasirin IT:
Tsarin Bambance-bambance a cikin Bambance-bambance
Hanya ta gama gari tana kwatanta sakamako kafin da bayan amfani da IT dangane da ƙasashen da ba su yi amfani da IT ba:
$Y_{it} = \alpha + \beta IT_{it} + \gamma X_{it} + \delta_i + \lambda_t + \epsilon_{it}$
Inda $Y_{it}$ ke wakiltar sakamakon tattalin arziki (hawo farashin kayayyaki, ci gaba), $IT_{it}$ alama ce don amfani da IT, $X_{it}$ sune masu sarrafa masu canji, kuma $\delta_i$, $\lambda_t$ sune ƙasa da lokaci da aka ƙayyade tasiri.
Ƙididdigar Ma'auni na Sadaukarwa
Ana auna farashin samar da kayayyaki da ayyuka na saukaka hawan farashin kayayyaki kamar haka:
$SR = \frac{\sum (\bar{Y} - Y_t)}{\Delta \pi}$
Inda $\bar{Y}$ shine yuwuwar samar da kayayyaki da ayyuka, $Y_t$ shine ainihin samar da kayayyaki da ayyuka yayin saukaka hawan farashin kayayyaki, kuma $\Delta \pi$ shine raguwar hawan farashin kayayyaki.
Daidaita Maki na Sha'awa
Don magance son zuciya, bincike yawanci yana amfani da hanyoyin daidaitawa don kwatanta masu amfani da IT tare da masu amfani da su kamar su waɗanda ba su yi amfani da su ba:
$P(X_i) = Pr(IT_i = 1 | X_i)$
Inda ake daidaita ƙasashe bisa ga halayen da ake iya gani $X_i$ kafin a kwatanta sakamako.
8. Tsarin Bincike: Hanyar Nazarin Lamari
Nazarin Kwatancen Lamari: Chile vs. Mexico
Tambayar Bincike: Ta yaya hanyoyin aiwatarwa daban-daban ke tasiri sakamakon IT a kasuwannin masu tasowa?
Tsarin Hanyar Bincike:
- Zaɓin Lamari: Chile (aiwatarwa a hankali 1990-1999) vs. Mexico (aiwatarwa cikin sauri 1999-2002)
- Tattara Bayanai: Sadarwar babban bankin ƙasa, rahotannin hawan farashin kayayyaki, yanke shawarar ƙimar manufa (1990-2010)
- Girman Bincike:
- Tsayar da tsammanin hawan farashin kayayyaki (bincike vs. ma'aunin tushen kasuwa)
- Sassaucin manufa yayin girgizar waje
- Tasirin sadarwa (makin karantawa na rahotannin hawan farashin kayayyaki)
- Binciken Ƙirƙira: Gina ƙungiyoyin sarrafawa na roba ta amfani da ƙasashen Latin Amurka waɗanda ba su yi amfani da IT ba
Tsammanin Fahimta:
Wannan hanyar za ta gwada ko aiwatarwa a hankali (Chile) yana haifar da koyo mafi kyau na cibiyoyi fiye da amfani cikin sauri (Mexico), kuma ko waɗannan bambance-bambancen suna ci gaba a cikin sakamako na dogon lokaci.
9. Amfani na Gaba da Hanyoyin Bincike
Haɗa Kai da Manufofin Yanayi
Tsare-tsaren IT na gaba na iya haɗa daidaitawar haɗarin yanayi zuwa ƙimar manufa ko ayyukan ma'auni, kama da shawarwarin Cibiyar Sabunta Tsarin Kuɗi (NGFS).
Tasirin Kuɗin Dijital
Kuɗin dijital na babban bankin ƙasa (CBDCs) na iya canza aiwatar da IT ta hanyar ingantaccen watsa kuɗi da bayanan tattalin arziki na ainihin lokaci.
Haɓaka Koyon Injina
Dabarun hasashe masu ci gaba ta amfani da AI na iya magance dogaro da IT akan hasashen hawan farashin kayayyaki mara kyau, yana iya inganta amsa manufa.
Tsare-tsaren Manufofi Haɗe-haɗe
Ƙaura daga ƙananan manufofin hawan farashin kayayyaki zuwa tsare-tsare waɗanda ke daidaita kwanciyar hankali na farashi, kwanciyar hankali na kuɗi, da manufofin aikin yi a fili.
10. Nassoshi
- Bernanke, B. S., & Mishkin, F. S. (1997). Manufar kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki: Sabon tsarin manufar kuɗi? Jaridar Tattalin Arziki, 11(2), 97-116.
- Hammond, G. (2012). Matsayin fasaha na manufar kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki. Bankin Ingila.
- IMF. (2020). Rahoton Shekara-shekara kan Tsarin Canjin Kuɗi da Ƙuntatawa. Asusun Kuɗi na Duniya.
- Mishkin, F. S. (2000). Manufar kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki a ƙasashe masu tasowa. Bita na Tattalin Arziki na Amurka, 90(2), 105-109.
- Mishkin, F. S., & Posen, A. S. (1997). Manufar kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki: Darussai daga ƙasashe huɗu. Bita kan Manufofin Tattalin Arziki, 3(3).
- Rose, A. K. (2007). Tsarin kuɗi na duniya mai ƙarfi ya fito: Manufar kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki ita ce Bretton Woods, a juye. Jaridar Kuɗi da Kuɗi na Duniya, 26(5), 663-681.
- Svensson, L. E. (2002). Manufar kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki: Shin ya kamata a ƙirƙira shi azaman ƙa'idar kayan aiki ko ƙa'idar manufa? Bita na Tattalin Arziki na Turai, 46(4-5), 771-780.
- Svensson, L. E. (2010). Manufar kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki. A cikin Littafin Jagora na Tattalin Arziki na Kuɗi (Vol. 3, shafi na 1237-1302). Elsevier.
- Walsh, C. E. (2009). Manufar kula da hawan farashin kayayyaki: Me muka koya? Kuɗin Duniya, 12(2), 195-233.
- Petrevski, G. (2022). Tasirin Tattalin Arziki na Manufar Kula da Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki: Nazarin Takardun Bincike na Gaskiya. Jami'ar Ss. Cyril da Methodius.