Bincike Kan Rahoton Taron Shirin Renminbi na Budapest 2018

1. Gabatarwa & Bayanin Taron

Taron Shirin Renminbi na Budapest na 2018, wanda Babban Bankin Hungary (MNB) ya shirya, ya nuna taro na shekara-shekara na huɗu da aka mayar da hankali kan ƙaddamar da Renminbi na kasar Sin (RMB) a duniya. Taron ya tattaro manyan shugabannin kasuwa da ƙwararru don tattauna hawan tattalin arzikin Sin da tasirinsa ga kuɗin duniya, tare da mai da hankali musamman kan Tsakiyar da Gabashin Turai (CEE). Taron ya jaddada rawar da Hungary ke takawa na gaba wajen haɓaka alaƙar kuɗi da Sin, inda ta sanya kanta a matsayin gada a cikin Tarayyar Turai don Shirin 'Belt da Road' na Sin (BRI).

2. Jigogi & Tattaunawa Mafi Muhimmanci

2.1 Hawan Asiya da Ƙaddamar da Renminbi a Duniya

Taron ya sanya ƙarni na 21 a matsayin "Ƙarnin Asiya," tare da aikin tattalin arzikin Sin da yaduwar RMB a duniya a tsakiyarsa. Mai jawabi Dániel Palotai ya bayyana daidaitawar MNB da manufofin haɗin kuɗi na Sin a ƙarƙashin BRI, yana lura da shigar da babban bankin tun farko kan "Sabuwar Hanyar Siliki." Ba da kyautar Lámfalussy ga Zhou Xiaochuan, tsohon Gwamnan Babban Bankin Kasar Sin, ya nuna amincewa da rawar da ya taka wajen ƙaddamar da RMB a duniya.

2.2 Matsayin Dabarun Hungary

An yi cikakken bayani game da haɗin gwiwar Hungary da Sin:

• Memba & Saka hannun jari: Memba na Babban Bankin Saka Hannun Jari na Asiya (AIIB) tun 2017; mai saka hannun jari a Asusun SINO-CEE ta hanyar Eximbank.
• Kayayyakin More Rayuwa: Mai sa hannu kan yarjejeniyar gina layin dogo na Budapest-Belgrade (2015).
• Kasuwar Jari: Nasarar fitar da 'panda' (a cikin ƙasa) da 'dim sum' (a wajen ƙasa) bonds a kasuwannin Sin.
• Diplomasiyar Kololuwa: Mai masaukin baki na Taron Kololuwa na 16+1 (2017) da kuma Taron Gwamnonin Babban Banki na 16+1 mai zuwa.

2.3 Samun Kasuwa da Haɗin Kuɗi

Florence Lee na HSBC ta yi cikakken bayani game da 'yantar da kasuwar jari ta Sin, gami da tsarin Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII). An gabatar da wata mahimmin batu: yayin da Hungary ke da rabon RQFII daidai da ƙasashe kamar Ostiraliya da Switzerland, tana cikin ƙasashe biyar waɗanda har yanzu ba su yi amfani da rabonsu ba don saka hannun jari a cikin ƙasa, wanda ke nuna yiwuwar tazara tsakanin matsayin dabarun da haɗin gwiwar kasuwar kuɗi na zahiri.

3. Fahimta ta Asali & Ra'ayin Manazarta

Fahimta ta Asali: Taron Budapest bai kasance taron fasaha ba ne, sai dai taron nuna dabarun. Hungary tana aiwatar da dabarun "gada da cibiya" da gwamnati ta tsara a cikin EU, tana amfani da BRI na Sin don jawo jari da haɓaka mahimmancinta a fagen siyasar duniya. Wannan wasa ne na sama-zuwa-sama, na cibiyoyi, ba tsari ne na kasuwa ba.

Tsarin Ma'ana: Labarin ya ci gaba daga babban girma ("Ƙarnin Asiya") zuwa takamaiman (rawar Hungary). Yana haɗa burin kuɗin duniya na Sin (ƙaddamar da RMB a duniya, BRI) da manufofin ci gaban ƙasa na Hungary (kudaden kayayyakin more rayuwa, FDI). MNB tana aiki a matsayin babban mai tsarawa, tana amfani da diflomasiyar kuɗi (RQFII, panda bonds) don sauƙaƙe wannan haɗuwa.

Ƙarfi & Kurakurai: Ƙarfi: Dabarun suna da haɗin kai kuma suna da gaggawa. Hungary ta sami fa'idodin farko a CEE game da haɗin gwiwar Sin. Hanyar da ta haɗa diflomasiyar (16+1), manufofin (shirye-shiryen MNB), da kuɗi (AIIB, bonds) tana da ƙwarewa. Kurakurai: Rahoton ya bayyana rauni mai mahimmanci: tazarar amfani. Samun rabon RQFII amma ba a amfani da shi ba yana nuna cewa masu saka hannun jari na cibiyoyin Hungary ƙila ba su da sha'awar, ƙwarewa, ko izini don tura jari a cikin rikitattun kasuwannin cikin ƙasa na Sin. Wannan yana haifar da rashin jituwa tsakanin nuna siyasa da gaskiyar kuɗi. Bugu da ƙari, dabarun tana ɗaukar haɗarin dogaro mai mahimmanci da yuwuwar rikici a fagen siyasar duniya a cikin EU.

Fahimta Mai Aiki: Ga Hungary: Ku wuce samun rabo zuwa kunna rabo. Ƙirƙiri hanyoyin saka hannun jari da aka keɓe ga Sin da ƙwarewa a cikin cibiyoyin kuɗi na cikin gida. Ga sauran ƙasashen CEE: Ku bincika samfurin Hungary ba kawai don kwaikwayo ba, amma don gano tazara (kamar batun amfani) don amfani. Ga masu tsara manufofin EU: Ku lura da waɗannan hanyoyin haɗin kuɗi na kasashen biyu sosai, domin suna iya ƙalubalantar matsayin gamayya na ƙungiyar game da Sin kuma su haifar da damar yin amfani da bambance-bambancen ka'idoji.

4. Tsarin Fasaha & Samfuran Bincike

Ana iya yin samfuri na nasarar irin wannan haɗin kuɗi na kasashen biyu ta amfani da gyare-gyaren Samfurin Nauyi na ciniki, wanda aka yi amfani da shi ga kwararar jari. Yuwuwar kwararar kuɗi ($F_{ij}$) tsakanin ƙasa $i$ (misali Hungary) da ƙasa $j$ (misali Sin) ana iya bayyana shi kamar haka:

$F_{ij} = G \frac{M_i^\alpha M_j^\beta}{D_{ij}^\gamma} \cdot P_{ij}^\delta$

Inda:

• $G$ matsakaici ne.
• $M_i, M_j$ su ne yawan tattalin arziki (misali GDP) na ƙasashen biyu.
• $D_{ij}$ yana wakiltar "nisa," wanda a cikin wannan mahallin ya haɗa da ba kawai yanayin ƙasa ba har ma da shinge na cibiyoyi, ka'idoji, da na bayanai.
• $P_{ij}$ shine matsakaicin manufofin (0 zuwa 1) mai mahimmanci ga wannan harka. Yana ɗaukar tasirin takamaiman yarjejeniyoyin kasashen biyu kamar rabon RQFII, shiga BRI, da layukan musayar kuɗi. $P_{ij}$ yana nufin rage tasirin $D_{ij}$.
• $\alpha, \beta, \gamma, \delta$ sune elasticity.

Dabarun Hungary tana mai da hankali sosai kan haɓaka $P_{ij}$ ta hanyar ƙoƙarin diflomasiyar da manufofin. "Tazarar amfani" tana nuna cewa yayin da aka ƙara $P_{ij}$, wasu sassan $D_{ij}$ (misali ilimin kasuwa, iyawar tantance haɗari) sun kasance masu girma, suna danne ainihin kwararar $F_{ij}$.

Misalin Tsarin Bincike: Bishiyar Yanke Shawara ta Amfani da RQFII

Ana iya tsara yanke shawarar mai sarrafa kadarorin Hungary na amfani da rabon RQFII a matsayin binciken harka:

1. Matsala: Rashin amfani da rabon RQFII da aka raba.
2. Binciken Tushen Dalili:
   • Tazarar Iyawa: Rashin ƙwarewar cikin gida kan kasuwannin hannun jari/bonds na A-shares na Sin.
   • Kimanta Haɗari da Sakamako: Ana ganin sauyin yanayi da rashin bayyana ka'idojin kasuwannin cikin ƙasa sun fi yuwuwar dawowa muhimmanci.
   • Rashin Daidaituwar Dabarun: Izinin saka hannun jari ƙila bai haɗa ko ba ya ba da fifiko ga kadarorin Sin ba.
   • Cikas na Aiki: Rikitarwar kafa tsarin kulawa, daidaitawa, da hanyoyin musayar kuɗi na RMB.
3. Hanyoyin Magani:
   • Haɗin gwiwa tare da ƙwararren mai sarrafa kadarorin duniya ko na Asiya ta hanyar samfurin mataimaki ko asusun-asusun.
   • Saka hannun jari da farko a cikin kayan aiki marasa aiki (misali CSI 300 ETF) don samun bayyanuwa tare da ƙarancin haɗarin sarrafawa mai aiki.
   • Yi lobi don "taruwar" hanyar saka hannun jari ta ƙasa wanda MNB ko Eximbank suka ɗauki nauyin don cimma ma'auni da raba ƙwarewa.

5. Ayyuka na Gaba & Jagororin Dabarun

Hanyar da aka zayyana tana nuna ci gaba da yawa na gaba:

1. Daga Rabo zuwa Kwarara: Mataki na gaba dole ne ya mayar da hankali kan kunna kayan aikin kuɗi. Yi tsammanin ƙara fitar da bonds masu sunan RMB ("Panda Bonds") ta kamfanonin gwamnatin Hungary da kuma yuwuwar keɓaɓɓen asusun saka hannun jari na Hungary-Sin.
2. Haɗin Kuɗin Lantarki: Tare da jagorancin Sin a cikin Kuɗin Lantarki na Babban Banki (CBDC) ta hanyar tsarin Biyan Kuɗin Lantarki na Lantarki (DCEP), haɗin gwiwar gaba zai iya haɗawa da ayyukan gwaji don daidaita kuɗin CBDC tsakanin ƙasashe tsakanin MNB da PBOC, yana rage dogaro ga tsoffin hanyoyin SWIFT. Bincike daga Bankin don Haɗin gwiwar Duniya (BIS) kan shirye-shiryen CBDC da yawa (aikin mBridge) yana ba da tsarin da ya dace.
3. Haɗin Kuɗin Kore: Daidaitawa da Yarjejeniyar Kore ta EU da burin kuɗin kore na Sin. Hungary za ta iya sanya kanta a matsayin cibiya don fitar da "Green Panda Bonds" don ba da kuɗin ayyukan more rayuwa masu dorewa da ke da alaƙa da BRI a yankin CEE.
4. Tsare-tsaren Rage Haɗari: Haɓaka samfuran haɗin gwiwar saka hannun jari da raba haɗari tare da bankunan manufofin Sin don magance damuwar dorewar bashi da sau da yawa ke da alaƙa da ayyukan BRI.

6. Nassoshi

1. Magyar Nemzeti Bank. (2018). Rahoton Taron Shirin Renminbi na Budapest 2018. Bita na Kuɗi da Tattalin Arziki, 17(2), 156–160.
2. Babban Bankin Jama'ar Sin. (2015). Rahoton Ƙaddamar da RMB a Duniya. Beijing.
3. Babban Bankin Turai. (2021). Matsayin euro a duniya. Frankfurt.
4. Bankin don Haɗin gwiwar Ƙirƙira na Haɗin gwiwar Duniya. (2022). Aikin mBridge: Haɗa tattalin arziki ta hanyar CBDC. Basel.
5. Bankin Duniya. (2019). Tattalin Arzikin Belt da Road: Damar da Haɗarin Hanyoyin Sufuri. Washington, DC.
6. Szunomár, Á. (2020). Saka Hannun Jari na Sin a Tsakiyar da Gabashin Turai: Harkar Hungary. Cibiyar Tattalin Arzikin Duniya, Cibiyar Nazarin Tattalin Arziki da Yanki.